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Saint Louis vs Real Monarchs — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
6/17/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 24Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis52%
×Draw24%
Real Monarchs24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.68
Real Monarchs
1.05

Saint Louis creates 60% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 57 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Real Monarchs
1.12

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Real Monarchs
1.81

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Real Monarchs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
76%
Saint Louis or Real Monarchs
76%
Draw or Real Monarchs
48%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
28%
Real Monarchs wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
81%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
50%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
24%
Real Monarchs 1+ goals
65%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
28%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
69%
Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Real Monarchs defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.68

Real Monarchs attack 1.12 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Saint Louis scores more
52%
level
24%
Real Monarchs scores more
24%

Saint Louis at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Saint Louis 0–1 Real Monarchs

Real Monarchs beat Saint Louis 1-0 in USL Championship on June 17, 2018.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri).