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Saint Louis vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
7/28/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 37World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Saint Louis54%
×Draw23%
Philadelphia Union II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.87
Philadelphia Union II
1.14

Saint Louis creates 64% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 43 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
77%
Saint Louis or Philadelphia Union II
77%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
46%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
31%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
85%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
56%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
29%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
68%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
32%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
70%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.87

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Saint Louis scores more
54%
level
23%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
23%

Saint Louis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Louis vs Philadelphia Union II

Saint Louis beat Philadelphia Union II 3-0 in USL Championship on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri).