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Saint Louis vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
9/5/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 47World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Saint Louis50%
×Draw25%
Ottawa Fury25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.60
Ottawa Fury
1.05

Saint Louis creates 52% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
75%
Saint Louis or Ottawa Fury
75%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
50%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
26%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
80%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
47%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
22%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
65%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
28%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
67%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saint Louis scores more
50%
level
25%
Ottawa Fury scores more
25%

Saint Louis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Louis vs Ottawa Fury

Saint Louis beat Ottawa Fury 1-0 in USL Championship on September 5, 2019.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri).