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Saint Louis vs Memphis 901 — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Memphis 901
Memphis 901
8/7/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 40World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis45%
×Draw25%
Memphis 90130%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.52
Memphis 901
1.18

Saint Louis creates 29% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 93 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Memphis 901
1.37

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Memphis 901
1.49

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Memphis 901+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Memphis 901 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
70%
Saint Louis or Memphis 901
75%
Draw or Memphis 901
55%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
22%
Memphis 901 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
78%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
45%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
20%
Memphis 901 1+ goals
69%
Memphis 901 2+ goals
33%
Memphis 901 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
60%
Memphis 901 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Memphis 901 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Memphis 901 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Memphis 901 attack 1.37 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saint Louis scores more
45%
level
25%
Memphis 901 scores more
30%

Saint Louis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Saint Louis 0–0 Memphis 901

Saint Louis and Memphis 901 drew 0-0 in USL Championship on August 7, 2019.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri).