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Saint Louis vs FC Cincinnati — US Open Cup 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
6/20/2019US Open CupUS Open Cup · 8th FinalsWorld Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saint Louis64%
×Draw20%
FC Cincinnati16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
2.17
FC Cincinnati
1.00

Saint Louis creates 117% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
2.00
FC Cincinnati
1.33

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.67
FC Cincinnati
2.33

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
FC Cincinnati+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

FC Cincinnati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
84%
Saint Louis or FC Cincinnati
80%
Draw or FC Cincinnati
36%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
40%
FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
89%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
64%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
36%
FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
63%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
26%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
80%
FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 2.00 + FC Cincinnati defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

FC Cincinnati attack 1.33 + Saint Louis defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Saint Louis scores more
64%
level
20%
FC Cincinnati scores more
16%

Saint Louis at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saint Louis 1 – 0 FC Cincinnati

Saint Louis beat FC Cincinnati 1-0 in US Open Cup on June 20, 2019.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri).