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Saint Louis vs Des Moines Menace — USL League Two 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
PST
22:00
Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
5/15/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 3Tony Glavin Soccer Complex (Cottleville, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saint Louis34%
×Draw22%
Des Moines Menace44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.61
Des Moines Menace
1.85

Des Moines Menace creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 41 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
2.29
Des Moines Menace
2.27

allows per match

Saint Louis
1.43
Des Moines Menace
0.93

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Des Moines Menace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
56%
Saint Louis or Des Moines Menace
78%
Draw or Des Moines Menace
66%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
16%
Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
80%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
48%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
22%
Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
84%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
55%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
44%
Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 2.29 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.61

Des Moines Menace attack 2.27 + Saint Louis defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Saint Louis scores more
34%
level
22%
Des Moines Menace scores more
44%

Des Moines Menace at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saint Louis face Des Moines Menace (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Saint Louis hosting Des Moines Menace. Match starts May 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Saint Louis host Des Moines Menace at Tony Glavin Soccer Complex (Cottleville, Missouri).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.