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Des Moines Menace vs Saint Louis — US Open Cup 2018

Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
5/16/2019US Open CupUS Open Cup · 2nd RoundJames. W Cownie Soccer Park (Des Moines, Iowa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Des Moines Menace35%
×Draw24%
Saint Louis42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Des Moines Menace
1.50
Saint Louis
1.67

Saint Louis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Des Moines Menace
2.00
Saint Louis
0.67

allows per match

Des Moines Menace
2.67
Saint Louis
1.00

finishing

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Des Moines Menace ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Des Moines Menace or draw
58%
Des Moines Menace or Saint Louis
76%
Draw or Saint Louis
65%

Winning margin

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
16%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
78%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
44%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
19%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
81%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
50%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
45%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Des Moines Menace at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Des Moines Menace attack 2.00 + Saint Louis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Saint Louis attack 0.67 + Des Moines Menace defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Des Moines Menace scores more
35%
level
24%
Saint Louis scores more
42%

Saint Louis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

US Open Cup: Des Moines Menace 1–1 Saint Louis

Des Moines Menace and Saint Louis drew 1-1 in US Open Cup on May 16, 2019.

The match was played at James. W Cownie Soccer Park (Des Moines, Iowa).