Saint Etienne 5–2 UNFP: Result & Stats

Saint Etienne

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

UNFP

7/12/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Saint Etienne69%

×Draw16%

UNFP15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchUNFP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

1.27

Saint Etienne

2.83

UNFP

1.27

Saint Etienne creates 123% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

3.50

creates per match

1.17

1.38

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Saint Etienne

3.50

UNFP

1.17

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.38

UNFP

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

UNFP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

UNFP →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

85%

Saint Etienne or UNFP

84%

Draw or UNFP

31%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

48%

UNFP wins by 2+

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

94%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

77%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

53%

UNFP 1+ goals

72%

UNFP 2+ goals

36%

UNFP 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

82%

UNFP (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

UNFP away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 3.50 + UNFP defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.83

UNFP attack 1.17 + Saint Etienne defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

69%

level

16%

UNFP scores more

15%

Saint Etienne at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff