Saint Etienne 2–3 Servette FC: Result & Stats

Saint Etienne

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Servette FC

A. Boakye 88'

I. Cardona 41'

T. Ouattara 82'

L. Zuka 79'

J. Guillemenot 67' (pen)

7/18/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Saint Etienne57%

×Draw19%

Servette FC24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchServette FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.66

Saint Etienne

2.57

Servette FC

1.66

Saint Etienne creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

3.00

creates per match

1.57

1.75

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Saint Etienne

3.00

Servette FC

1.57

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.75

Servette FC

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Servette FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Servette FC →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

76%

Saint Etienne or Servette FC

81%

Draw or Servette FC

43%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

37%

Servette FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

92%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

72%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

47%

Servette FC 1+ goals

81%

Servette FC 2+ goals

49%

Servette FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

70%

Servette FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Servette FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 3.00 + Servette FC defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.57

Servette FC attack 1.57 + Saint Etienne defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

57%

level

19%

Servette FC scores more

24%

Saint Etienne at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

I. Cardona

46'

B. Owusu← C. Lamba

46'

A. Moueffek← F. Tardieu

46'

Z. Davitashvili← B. Old

60'

B. Maubleu← G. Larsonneur

60'

A. Dodote← D. Appiah

60'

J. Mouton← M. Bernauer

60'

I. Miladinovic← N. El Jamali

60'

A. Boakye← I. Cardona

63'

67'

J. GuillemenotPenalty

77'

P. Eymard←

79'

L. Zuka

82'

T. Ouattara

88'

A. Boakye

Saint

Servette

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cardona

Manager: Eirik Horneland

46'▲B. Owusu←▼C. Lamba

46'▲A. Moueffek←▼F. Tardieu

46'▲Z. Davitashvili←▼B. Old

60'▲B. Maubleu←▼G. Larsonneur

60'▲A. Dodote←▼D. Appiah

60'▲J. Mouton←▼M. Bernauer

60'▲I. Miladinovic←▼N. El Jamali

60'▲A. Boakye←▼I. Cardona

77'▲P. Eymard←▼—

Saint Etienne substitutes

1MaubleuDelacroixDodote28OwusuFombaMouton29MoueffekMiladinovicEymard20Boakye22Davitashvili

Manager: Jocelyn Gourvennec

Servette FC substitutes

32FrickGaud25Bronn2Srdanovic33Zuka30JallowSimo7Morandi11Moos35AnselmeAtangana17Ouattara21Guillemenot

Friendlies Clubs: Saint Etienne 2–3 Servette FC

Servette FC beat Saint Etienne 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2025.

Goals: I. Cardona (41'), J. Guillemenot (67' pen), L. Zuka (79'), T. Ouattara (82'), A. Boakye (88').

Saint Etienne vs Servette FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Saint Etienne 2–3 Servette FC