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Saint Etienne vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Niort
Niort
4/1/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 29Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Saint Etienne54%
×Draw25%
Niort21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.65
Niort
0.94

Saint Etienne creates 76% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 96 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.77
Niort
0.83

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.05
Niort
1.53

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
79%
Saint Etienne or Niort
75%
Draw or Niort
46%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
29%
Niort wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
81%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
49%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
23%
Niort 1+ goals
61%
Niort 2+ goals
24%
Niort 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
72%
Niort (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Niort away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + Niort defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Niort attack 0.83 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
54%
level
25%
Niort scores more
21%

Saint Etienne at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Niort

Saint Etienne beat Niort 2-0 in Ligue 2 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.