Saint Etienne 0–1 Grenoble: Result & Stats

Saint Etienne

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Grenoble

A. Sanyang 90+1'

8/5/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Saint Etienne51%

×Draw25%

Grenoble24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.99

Saint Etienne

1.56

Grenoble

0.99

Saint Etienne creates 58% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 151 away

1.77

creates per match

0.93

1.05

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Saint Etienne

1.77

Grenoble

0.93

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.05

Grenoble

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

76%

Saint Etienne or Grenoble

75%

Draw or Grenoble

49%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

26%

Grenoble wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

79%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

46%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

21%

Grenoble 1+ goals

63%

Grenoble 2+ goals

26%

Grenoble 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

68%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.35 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + Grenoble defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Grenoble attack 0.93 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

51%

level

25%

Grenoble scores more

24%

Saint Etienne at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Maubleu

Grenoble · G

8.5

Match Events

22'

43'

46'

64'

64'

B. Bouchouari← D. Chambost

64'

A. Sanyang← E. Sylvestre

74'

V. Lobry← D. Appiah

74'

G. Charbonnier← I. Sissoko

78'

Saïdou Sow

81'

N. Ntolla← V. Postolachi

81'

A. Sbaï← S. Touray

90+1'

A. Sanyang↳ N. Ntolla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaintGrenoble

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots13

6Corners1

14Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots13

4On Target5

7Off Target6

6Blocked2

10Inside Box8

7Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

494Total Passes408

388Accurate Passes320

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2