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Grenoble vs Saint Etienne — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Grenoble
Grenoble
FT
5 – 3
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
8/3/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Grenoble72%
×Draw16%
Saint Etienne13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grenoble
2.70
Saint Etienne
1.05

Grenoble creates 157% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Grenoble
2.40
Saint Etienne
1.00

allows per match

Grenoble
1.10
Saint Etienne
3.00

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par
Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Saint Etienne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw
87%
Grenoble or Saint Etienne
84%
Draw or Saint Etienne
28%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+
50%
Saint Etienne wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals
93%
Grenoble 2+ goals
75%
Grenoble 3+ goals
50%
Saint Etienne 1+ goals
65%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
28%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)
85%
Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 2.40 + Saint Etienne defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Saint Etienne attack 1.00 + Grenoble defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Grenoble scores more
72%
level
16%
Saint Etienne scores more
13%

Grenoble at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grenoble vs Saint Etienne

Grenoble beat Saint Etienne 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Le Chambon-sur-Lignon.