Saint Etienne 2–2 Grenoble: Result & Stats

Saint Etienne

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Grenoble

A. Briançon 65'

D. Chambost 58'

M. Phaëton 78'

J. Tell 2'

10/1/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Saint Etienne51%

×Draw25%

Grenoble24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchGrenoble

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.99

Saint Etienne

1.56

Grenoble

0.99

Saint Etienne creates 58% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 151 away

1.77

creates per match

0.93

1.05

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Saint Etienne

1.77

Grenoble

0.93

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.05

Grenoble

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Grenoble →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

76%

Saint Etienne or Grenoble

75%

Draw or Grenoble

49%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

26%

Grenoble wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

79%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

46%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

21%

Grenoble 1+ goals

63%

Grenoble 2+ goals

26%

Grenoble 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

68%

Grenoble (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.35 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + Grenoble defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Grenoble attack 0.93 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

51%

level

25%

Grenoble scores more

24%

Saint Etienne at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

T. Monconduit

Saint Etienne · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

32'

34'

38'

55'

V. Lobry← B. Bouchouari

58'

D. Chambost↳ J. Krasso

60'

Jean-Philippe Krasso

62'

P. Ba← J. Tell

62'

J. Jeno← S. Touray

65'

A. Briançon↳ T. Monconduit

74'

M. Phaëton← F. Bambock

78'

M. Phaëton

80'

Sergi Palencia← M. Cafaro

80'

L. Mouton← I. Wadji

83'

B. Isola← J. Jeno

83'

J. Correa← A. Sanyang

90'

A. Aiki← Y. Maçon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaintGrenoble

Overview

68%Possession32%

26Total Shots4

10Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

26Total Shots4

9On Target2

8Off Target0

9Blocked2

14Inside Box4

12Outside Box0

Passing

68%Possession32%

580Total Passes282

489Accurate Passes179

84%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Grenoble

Saint Etienne and Grenoble drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on October 1, 2022.

Goals: J. Tell (2'), D. Chambost (58'), A. Briançon (65'), M. Phaëton (78').

Saint Etienne controlled possession (68%) and registered 26 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.

Saint Etienne vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Grenoble