Saint Etienne 2–0 Arles: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Saint Etienne

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arles

E. Riviere 52'

L. Batlles 51'

12/18/2010

Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Ètienne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Saint Etienne62%

×Draw23%

Arles15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.74

Saint Etienne

1.77

Arles

0.74

Saint Etienne creates 139% more chances

Season form · 220 home / 19 away

1.49

creates per match

0.37

1.10

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Saint Etienne

1.49

Arles

0.37

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.10

Arles

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

85%

Saint Etienne or Arles

77%

Draw or Arles

38%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

36%

Arles wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

83%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

53%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

26%

Arles 1+ goals

52%

Arles 2+ goals

17%

Arles 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

80%

Arles (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 220 matches

Arles away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.49 + Arles defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.77

Arles attack 0.37 + Saint Etienne defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

62%

level

23%

Arles scores more

15%

Saint Etienne at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

G. Germany← L. Abenzoar

51'

L. Batlles↳ E. Riviere

52'

E. Riviere

62'

G. Bergessio← L. Batlles

65'

B. Psaume← J. Fanchone

71'

C. Landrin← D. Payet

73'

Y. Kermorgant← K. Diawara

90'

I. Saadi← E. Riviere

Saint

Arles

16

2

15

5

23

▼

Fanchone

13

▼

28

27

8

29

19

▼

16

3

6

26

27

12

10

⚽

▼

Batlles

24

Perrin

11

Sako

7

▼

Payet

29

⚽A

▼

Riviere

62'▲G. Bergessio←▼L. Batlles

71'▲C. Landrin←▼D. Payet

90'▲I. Saadi←▼E. Riviere

Saint Etienne substitutes

9Bergessio19Landrin33Saadi30Moulin5Marchal23Guilavogui31Ghoulam

34'▲G. Germany←▼L. Abenzoar

65'▲B. Psaume←▼J. Fanchone

73'▲Y. Kermorgant←▼K. Diawara

Arles substitutes

22Germany7Psaume18Kermorgant30Yattara3Pavón10Ghilas20Cabella

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Arles

Saint Etienne beat Arles 2-0 in Ligue 1 on December 18, 2010.

Goals: L. Batlles (51'), E. Riviere (52').

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Ètienne).

Saint Etienne vs Arles — Ligue 1 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Arles