Saint Eloi Lupopo 2–0 Tshinkunku: Result & Stats

Saint Eloi Lupopo

FT

2 – 0

Tshinkunku

11/12/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo59%

×Draw25%

Tshinkunku15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint Eloi LupopoExpected goals in this matchTshinkunku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.64

Saint Eloi Lupopo

1.55

Tshinkunku

0.64

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 142% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 57 away

1.43

creates per match

0.79

0.48

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo

1.43

Tshinkunku

0.79

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo

0.48

Tshinkunku

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Tshinkunku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

Tshinkunku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw

85%

Saint Eloi Lupopo or Tshinkunku

75%

Draw or Tshinkunku

41%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+

32%

Tshinkunku wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals

79%

Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals

46%

Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals

20%

Tshinkunku 1+ goals

47%

Tshinkunku 2+ goals

14%

Tshinkunku 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)

80%

Tshinkunku (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

Tshinkunku away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + Tshinkunku defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tshinkunku attack 0.79 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more

59%

level

25%

Tshinkunku scores more

15%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff