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Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Saint-Luc — Ligue 1 2019

Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Saint-Luc
Saint-Luc
1/21/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade de la Victoire

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo56%
×Draw28%
Saint-Luc16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.35
Saint-Luc
0.57

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 137% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.43
Saint-Luc
0.67

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.48
Saint-Luc
1.27

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par
Saint-Luc+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

Saint-Luc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw
84%
Saint Eloi Lupopo or Saint-Luc
72%
Draw or Saint-Luc
44%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
28%
Saint-Luc wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
74%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
39%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
15%
Saint-Luc 1+ goals
43%
Saint-Luc 2+ goals
11%
Saint-Luc 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
78%
Saint-Luc (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

Saint-Luc away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + Saint-Luc defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Saint-Luc attack 0.67 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
56%
level
28%
Saint-Luc scores more
16%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Saint Eloi Lupopo 4–0 Saint-Luc

Saint Eloi Lupopo beat Saint-Luc 4-0 in Ligue 1 on January 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stade de la Victoire in Lubumbashi.