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Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Nyuki — Ligue 1 2019

Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
CANC
00:00
Nyuki
Nyuki
3/18/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo83%
×Draw13%
Nyuki4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Eloi Lupopo
2.38
Nyuki
0.35

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 580% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 9 away

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.43
Nyuki
0.22

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.48
Nyuki
3.33

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par
Nyuki+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

Nyuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw
96%
Saint Eloi Lupopo or Nyuki
87%
Draw or Nyuki
17%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
59%
Nyuki wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
91%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
68%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
42%
Nyuki 1+ goals
30%
Nyuki 2+ goals
5%
Nyuki 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
95%
Nyuki (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

Nyuki away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + Nyuki defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Nyuki attack 0.22 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
83%
level
13%
Nyuki scores more
4%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Nyuki — Match Preview

Saint Eloi Lupopo face Nyuki on March 18, 2020 in this Ligue 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Saint Eloi Lupopo host Nyuki at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.