Saint Eloi Lupopo 1–1 Maniema Union: Result & Stats

Saint Eloi Lupopo

FT

1 – 1

Maniema Union

5/5/2024

Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 5Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo38%

×Draw31%

Maniema Union32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint Eloi LupopoExpected goals in this matchManiema Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.95

Saint Eloi Lupopo

1.06

Maniema Union

0.95

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 93 away

1.43

creates per match

1.42

0.48

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo

1.43

Maniema Union

1.42

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo

0.48

Maniema Union

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

Maniema Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw

68%

Saint Eloi Lupopo or Maniema Union

69%

Draw or Maniema Union

62%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+

15%

Maniema Union wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals

65%

Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals

29%

Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals

9%

Maniema Union 1+ goals

61%

Maniema Union 2+ goals

25%

Maniema Union 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)

54%

Maniema Union (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + Maniema Union defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.06

Maniema Union attack 1.42 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more

38%

level

31%

Maniema Union scores more

32%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff