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Saint Eloi Lupopo vs JSK — Ligue 1 2019

Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
CANC
13:00
JSK
JSK
7/6/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 18Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo49%
×Draw30%
JSK21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.23
JSK
0.71

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 73% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 81 away

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.43
JSK
0.94

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.48
JSK
1.02

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par
JSK+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

JSK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw
79%
Saint Eloi Lupopo or JSK
70%
Draw or JSK
51%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
22%
JSK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
71%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
35%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
13%
JSK 1+ goals
51%
JSK 2+ goals
16%
JSK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
69%
JSK (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

JSK away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.02 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + JSK defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

JSK attack 0.94 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
49%
level
30%
JSK scores more
21%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Saint Eloi Lupopo host JSK

July 6, 2025: Saint Eloi Lupopo take on JSK in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Saint Eloi Lupopo host JSK at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.