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Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Dauphins Noirs — Ligue 1 2019

Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
FT
3 – 0
Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
5/12/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 5Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo56%
×Draw28%
Dauphins Noirs17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.40
Dauphins Noirs
0.63

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 122% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 77 away

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.43
Dauphins Noirs
0.78

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.48
Dauphins Noirs
1.36

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par
Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

Dauphins Noirs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw
83%
Saint Eloi Lupopo or Dauphins Noirs
72%
Draw or Dauphins Noirs
44%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
28%
Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
75%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
41%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
17%
Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
47%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
13%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
77%
Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
56%
level
28%
Dauphins Noirs scores more
17%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Dauphins Noirs

Saint Eloi Lupopo beat Dauphins Noirs 3-0 in Ligue 1 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.