Sai Gon vs An Giang — Cup 2019
Cup · 8th FinalsSân vận động Thống Nhất (Thong Nhat Stadium) (Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City))Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Sai Gon62%
An Giang20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sai Gon creates 78% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over78
- Under22
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes72
- No28
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sai Gon ↓
Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sai Gon at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
An Giang away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sai Gon attack 3.33 + An Giang defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.67
An Giang attack 1.67 + Sai Gon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Sai Gon at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Sai Gon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Sai Gon host An Giang on Saturday, 29 June 2019 at 11:00. The match is part of the Cup 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Sai Gon vs An Giang
Sai Gon beat An Giang 4-2 in Cup on June 29, 2019.
The match was played at Sân vận động Thống Nhất (Thong Nhat Stadium) (Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City)).