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Sahel vs Nouadhibou — Premier League 2020

Sahel
Sahel
FT
0 – 2
Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
5/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 5Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sahel11%
×Draw28%
Nouadhibou61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sahel
0.42
Nouadhibou
1.38

Nouadhibou creates 229% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 80 away

creates per match

Sahel
0.27
Nouadhibou
1.66

allows per match

Sahel
1.09
Nouadhibou
0.57

finishing

Sahel+0.00on par
Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sahel ↓

Nouadhibou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–123%
0–216%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sahel or draw
39%
Sahel or Nouadhibou
72%
Draw or Nouadhibou
89%

Winning margin

Sahel wins by 2+
2%
Nouadhibou wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Sahel 1+ goals
34%
Sahel 2+ goals
7%
Sahel 3+ goals
1%
Nouadhibou 1+ goals
75%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
40%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sahel (draw refunded)
15%
Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sahel at home — creates 0.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Nouadhibou away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sahel attack 0.27 + Nouadhibou defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.42

Nouadhibou attack 1.66 + Sahel defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sahel scores more
11%
level
28%
Nouadhibou scores more
61%

Nouadhibou at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sahel 0–2 Nouadhibou

Nouadhibou beat Sahel 2-0 in Premier League on May 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.