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Saham vs Nizwa — Professional League 2019

Saham
Saham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nizwa
Nizwa
1/7/2022Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 9Sohar Regional Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Saham51%
×Draw26%
Nizwa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saham
1.53
Nizwa
0.94

Saham creates 63% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 17 away

creates per match

Saham
1.00
Nizwa
0.41

allows per match

Saham
1.48
Nizwa
2.06

finishing

Saham+0.00on par
Nizwa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saham ↓

Nizwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Saham or draw
77%
Saham or Nizwa
74%
Draw or Nizwa
49%

Winning margin

Saham wins by 2+
26%
Nizwa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Saham 1+ goals
78%
Saham 2+ goals
45%
Saham 3+ goals
20%
Nizwa 1+ goals
61%
Nizwa 2+ goals
24%
Nizwa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Saham (draw refunded)
69%
Nizwa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 56 matches

Nizwa away — creates 0.41, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saham attack 1.00 + Nizwa defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Nizwa attack 0.41 + Saham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Saham scores more
51%
level
26%
Nizwa scores more
23%

Saham at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Saham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saham 0 – 0 Nizwa

Saham and Nizwa drew 0-0 in Professional League on January 7, 2022.

The match was played at Sohar Regional Sports Complex in Sohar.