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Saguntino vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Saguntino
Saguntino
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
11/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 11Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Saguntino41%
×Draw27%
Villarreal III32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saguntino
1.31
Villarreal III
1.12

Saguntino creates 17% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 112 away

creates per match

Saguntino
1.39
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Saguntino
0.86
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Saguntino+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saguntino ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Saguntino or draw
68%
Saguntino or Villarreal III
73%
Draw or Villarreal III
59%

Winning margin

Saguntino wins by 2+
19%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Saguntino 1+ goals
73%
Saguntino 2+ goals
38%
Saguntino 3+ goals
14%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
67%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
31%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saguntino (draw refunded)
56%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saguntino at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saguntino attack 1.39 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Saguntino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Saguntino scores more
41%
level
27%
Villarreal III scores more
32%

Saguntino at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Saguntino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Saguntino 3–2 Villarreal III

Saguntino beat Villarreal III 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre in Sagunto (Sagunt).