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Saguntino vs Rayo Ibense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Saguntino
Saguntino
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rayo Ibense
Rayo Ibense
2/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 20Estadio El Fornás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Saguntino57%
×Draw25%
Rayo Ibense18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saguntino
1.56
Rayo Ibense
0.74

Saguntino creates 111% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 49 away

creates per match

Saguntino
1.39
Rayo Ibense
0.63

allows per match

Saguntino
0.86
Rayo Ibense
1.73

finishing

Saguntino+0.00on par
Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saguntino ↓

Rayo Ibense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Saguntino or draw
82%
Saguntino or Rayo Ibense
75%
Draw or Rayo Ibense
43%

Winning margin

Saguntino wins by 2+
30%
Rayo Ibense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Saguntino 1+ goals
79%
Saguntino 2+ goals
46%
Saguntino 3+ goals
21%
Rayo Ibense 1+ goals
52%
Rayo Ibense 2+ goals
17%
Rayo Ibense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saguntino (draw refunded)
76%
Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saguntino at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

Rayo Ibense away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saguntino attack 1.39 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rayo Ibense attack 0.63 + Saguntino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Saguntino scores more
57%
level
25%
Rayo Ibense scores more
18%

Saguntino at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Saguntino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saguntino vs Rayo Ibense

Saguntino beat Rayo Ibense 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio El Fornás in El Port de Sagunt.