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Saguntino vs Racing CF Benidorm — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Saguntino
Saguntino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
11/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Estadio El Fornás

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Saguntino47%
×Draw27%
Racing CF Benidorm26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saguntino
1.40
Racing CF Benidorm
0.96

Saguntino creates 46% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Saguntino
1.39
Racing CF Benidorm
1.06

allows per match

Saguntino
0.86
Racing CF Benidorm
1.41

finishing

Saguntino+0.00on par
Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saguntino ↓

Racing CF Benidorm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Saguntino or draw
74%
Saguntino or Racing CF Benidorm
73%
Draw or Racing CF Benidorm
53%

Winning margin

Saguntino wins by 2+
23%
Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saguntino 1+ goals
75%
Saguntino 2+ goals
41%
Saguntino 3+ goals
17%
Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
62%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
25%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Saguntino (draw refunded)
65%
Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saguntino at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

Racing CF Benidorm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saguntino attack 1.39 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Saguntino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Saguntino scores more
47%
level
27%
Racing CF Benidorm scores more
26%

Saguntino at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Saguntino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saguntino vs Racing CF Benidorm

Saguntino and Racing CF Benidorm drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Fornás in El Port de Sagunt.