Saguntino 2–1 Jove Español: Result & Stats

Saguntino

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jove Español

4/5/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 29Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Saguntino47%

×Draw29%

Jove Español25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaguntinoExpected goals in this matchJove Español

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.86

Saguntino

1.30

Jove Español

0.86

Saguntino creates 51% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 110 away

1.39

creates per match

0.86

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Saguntino

1.39

Jove Español

0.86

allows per match

Saguntino

0.86

Jove Español

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saguntino+0.00on par

Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saguntino ↓

Jove Español →

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Saguntino or draw

75%

Saguntino or Jove Español

71%

Draw or Jove Español

53%

Winning margin

Saguntino wins by 2+

22%

Jove Español wins by 2+

Team goals

Saguntino 1+ goals

73%

Saguntino 2+ goals

37%

Saguntino 3+ goals

14%

Jove Español 1+ goals

58%

Jove Español 2+ goals

21%

Jove Español 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Saguntino (draw refunded)

65%

Jove Español (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saguntino at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saguntino attack 1.39 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Saguntino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Saguntino scores more

47%

level

29%

Jove Español scores more

25%

Saguntino at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Saguntino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff