Saguntino 2–2 Hércules II: Result & Stats

Saguntino

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Hércules II

10/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 7Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Saguntino48%

×Draw29%

Hércules II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaguntinoExpected goals in this matchHércules II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.83

Saguntino

1.30

Hércules II

0.83

Saguntino creates 57% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 78 away

1.39

creates per match

0.81

0.86

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Saguntino

1.39

Hércules II

0.81

allows per match

Saguntino

0.86

Hércules II

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saguntino+0.00on par

Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saguntino ↓

Hércules II →

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Saguntino or draw

76%

Saguntino or Hércules II

71%

Draw or Hércules II

52%

Winning margin

Saguntino wins by 2+

22%

Hércules II wins by 2+

Team goals

Saguntino 1+ goals

73%

Saguntino 2+ goals

37%

Saguntino 3+ goals

14%

Hércules II 1+ goals

56%

Hércules II 2+ goals

20%

Hércules II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Saguntino (draw refunded)

67%

Hércules II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saguntino at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saguntino attack 1.39 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Saguntino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Saguntino scores more

48%

level

29%

Hércules II scores more

24%

Saguntino at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Saguntino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff