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Saguntino vs Eldense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Saguntino
Saguntino
CANC
00:00
Eldense
Eldense
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 35Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Saguntino42%
×Draw28%
Eldense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saguntino
1.25
Eldense
1.02

Saguntino creates 23% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 26 away

creates per match

Saguntino
1.39
Eldense
1.19

allows per match

Saguntino
0.86
Eldense
1.12

finishing

Saguntino+0.00on par
Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saguntino ↓

Eldense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Saguntino or draw
70%
Saguntino or Eldense
72%
Draw or Eldense
58%

Winning margin

Saguntino wins by 2+
18%
Eldense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Saguntino 1+ goals
71%
Saguntino 2+ goals
36%
Saguntino 3+ goals
13%
Eldense 1+ goals
64%
Eldense 2+ goals
27%
Eldense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Saguntino (draw refunded)
58%
Eldense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saguntino at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

Eldense away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saguntino attack 1.39 + Eldense defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Eldense attack 1.19 + Saguntino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Saguntino scores more
42%
level
28%
Eldense scores more
30%

Saguntino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Saguntino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Saguntino host Eldense

April 26, 2020: Saguntino take on Eldense in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Saguntino host Eldense at Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.