Saguntino 1–0 Callosa Deportiva: Result & Stats

Saguntino

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Callosa Deportiva

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 37Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Saguntino50%

×Draw28%

Callosa Deportiva22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaguntinoExpected goals in this matchCallosa Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.77

Saguntino

1.33

Callosa Deportiva

0.77

Saguntino creates 73% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 18 away

1.39

creates per match

0.67

0.86

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Saguntino

1.39

Callosa Deportiva

0.67

allows per match

Saguntino

0.86

Callosa Deportiva

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saguntino+0.00on par

Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saguntino ↓

Callosa Deportiva →

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Saguntino or draw

78%

Saguntino or Callosa Deportiva

72%

Draw or Callosa Deportiva

50%

Winning margin

Saguntino wins by 2+

24%

Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+

Team goals

Saguntino 1+ goals

74%

Saguntino 2+ goals

38%

Saguntino 3+ goals

15%

Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals

54%

Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals

18%

Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Saguntino (draw refunded)

70%

Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saguntino at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

Callosa Deportiva away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saguntino attack 1.39 + Callosa Deportiva defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.67 + Saguntino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saguntino scores more

50%

level

28%

Callosa Deportiva scores more

22%

Saguntino at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saguntino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Saguntino 1–0 Callosa Deportiva

Saguntino beat Callosa Deportiva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre in Sagunt.

Saguntino vs Callosa Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Saguntino 1–0 Callosa Deportiva