Saguntino 1–3 Benigànim: Result & Stats

Saguntino

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Benigànim

4/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 33Estadio Nou Camp de Morvedre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Saguntino66%

×Draw20%

Benigànim14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaguntinoExpected goals in this matchBenigànim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.78

Saguntino

2.02

Benigànim

0.78

Saguntino creates 159% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 44 away

1.39

creates per match

0.70

0.86

allows per match

2.66

creates per match

Saguntino

1.39

Benigànim

0.70

allows per match

Saguntino

0.86

Benigànim

2.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saguntino+0.00on par

Benigànim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saguntino ↓

Benigànim →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Saguntino or draw

86%

Saguntino or Benigànim

80%

Draw or Benigànim

34%

Winning margin

Saguntino wins by 2+

41%

Benigànim wins by 2+

Team goals

Saguntino 1+ goals

87%

Saguntino 2+ goals

60%

Saguntino 3+ goals

33%

Benigànim 1+ goals

54%

Benigànim 2+ goals

18%

Benigànim 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Saguntino (draw refunded)

83%

Benigànim (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saguntino at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

Benigànim away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saguntino attack 1.39 + Benigànim defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.02

Benigànim attack 0.70 + Saguntino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Saguntino scores more

66%

level

20%

Benigànim scores more

14%

Saguntino at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Saguntino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff