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Sagrada Esperança vs Wiliete — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wiliete
Wiliete
2/17/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 13Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Sagrada Esperança51%
×Draw28%
Wiliete21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.35
Wiliete
0.74

Sagrada Esperança creates 82% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 99 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.68
Wiliete
0.95

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
Wiliete
1.02

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Wiliete+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Wiliete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
79%
Sagrada Esperança or Wiliete
72%
Draw or Wiliete
49%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
25%
Wiliete wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
74%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
39%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
15%
Wiliete 1+ goals
52%
Wiliete 2+ goals
17%
Wiliete 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
71%
Wiliete (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.53 · 106 matches

Wiliete away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.68 + Wiliete defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.35

Wiliete attack 0.95 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
51%
level
28%
Wiliete scores more
21%

Sagrada Esperança at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sagrada Esperança vs Wiliete

Sagrada Esperança beat Wiliete 2-0 in Girabola on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.