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Sagrada Esperança vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
5 – 1
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
12/23/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 9Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sagrada Esperança69%
×Draw21%
Sporting de Cabinda10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.81
Sporting de Cabinda
0.52

Sagrada Esperança creates 248% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.68
Sporting de Cabinda
0.51

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
Sporting de Cabinda
1.94

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
90%
Sagrada Esperança or Sporting de Cabinda
79%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
31%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
41%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
84%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
54%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
27%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
41%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
10%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
87%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.53 · 106 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.68 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.51 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
69%
level
21%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
10%

Sagrada Esperança at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 5–1 Sporting de Cabinda

Sagrada Esperança beat Sporting de Cabinda 5-1 in Girabola on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis in Luanda.