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Sagrada Esperança vs Sporting de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
4 – 0
Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
12/4/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 11Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sagrada Esperança78%
×Draw16%
Sporting de Benguela6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
2.21
Sporting de Benguela
0.46

Sagrada Esperança creates 380% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 29 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.69
Sporting de Benguela
0.38

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
Sporting de Benguela
2.72

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Sporting de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
94%
Sagrada Esperança or Sporting de Benguela
84%
Draw or Sporting de Benguela
22%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
53%
Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
89%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
65%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
38%
Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
37%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
8%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
92%
Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.53 · 103 matches

Sporting de Benguela away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.69 + Sporting de Benguela defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.38 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
78%
level
16%
Sporting de Benguela scores more
6%

Sagrada Esperança at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 4–0 Sporting de Benguela

Sagrada Esperança beat Sporting de Benguela 4-0 in Girabola on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Quintalão in Dundo.