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Sagrada Esperança vs São Salvador — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
São Salvador
São Salvador
11/4/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 2Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sagrada Esperança61%
×Draw26%
São Salvador14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.51
São Salvador
0.56

Sagrada Esperança creates 170% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.68
São Salvador
0.59

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
São Salvador
1.34

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

São Salvador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
86%
Sagrada Esperança or São Salvador
74%
Draw or São Salvador
39%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
32%
São Salvador wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
78%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
44%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
19%
São Salvador 1+ goals
43%
São Salvador 2+ goals
11%
São Salvador 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
82%
São Salvador (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.53 · 106 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.68 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.51

São Salvador attack 0.59 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
61%
level
26%
São Salvador scores more
14%

Sagrada Esperança at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sagrada Esperança vs São Salvador

Sagrada Esperança beat São Salvador 2-0 in Girabola on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.