Sagrada Esperança 2–0 Santa Rita: Result & Stats

Sagrada Esperança

FT

2 – 0

Santa Rita

6/19/2021

Girabola · Round 25Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sagrada Esperança61%

×Draw26%

Santa Rita13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sagrada EsperançaExpected goals in this matchSanta Rita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.52

Sagrada Esperança

1.50

Santa Rita

0.52

Sagrada Esperança creates 188% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 68 away

1.69

creates per match

0.50

0.53

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança

1.69

Santa Rita

0.50

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança

0.53

Santa Rita

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Santa Rita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw

87%

Sagrada Esperança or Santa Rita

74%

Draw or Santa Rita

39%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+

33%

Santa Rita wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals

78%

Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals

44%

Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals

19%

Santa Rita 1+ goals

41%

Santa Rita 2+ goals

10%

Santa Rita 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)

83%

Santa Rita (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.53 · 103 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.69 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more

61%

level

26%

Santa Rita scores more

13%

Sagrada Esperança at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff