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Sagrada Esperança vs Pyramids FC — CAF Champions League 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
1/11/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 5Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sagrada Esperança37%
×Draw33%
Pyramids FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
0.94
Pyramids FC
0.80

Sagrada Esperança creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.10
Pyramids FC
1.00

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.60
Pyramids FC
0.78

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
71%
Sagrada Esperança or Pyramids FC
67%
Draw or Pyramids FC
63%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
14%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
61%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
24%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
7%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
55%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
19%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
56%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.10 + Pyramids FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Pyramids FC attack 1.00 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
37%
level
33%
Pyramids FC scores more
29%

Sagrada Esperança at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sagrada Esperança vs Pyramids FC

Pyramids FC beat Sagrada Esperança 1-0 in CAF Champions League on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.