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Sagrada Esperança vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2021

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
12/9/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 1Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sagrada Esperança34%
×Draw27%
Petro de Luanda38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.17
Petro de Luanda
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 80 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.74
Petro de Luanda
1.95

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.57
Petro de Luanda
0.59

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
62%
Sagrada Esperança or Petro de Luanda
73%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
66%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
14%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
69%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
33%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
11%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
72%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
36%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
47%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.57 · 77 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.59 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.74 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.17

Petro de Luanda attack 1.95 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
34%
level
27%
Petro de Luanda scores more
38%

Petro de Luanda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 0–3 Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat Sagrada Esperança 3-0 in Girabola on December 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Quintalão in Dundo.