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Sagrada Esperança vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
2/14/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 5Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Sagrada Esperança36%
×Draw28%
Petro de Luanda36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.15
Petro de Luanda
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 109 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.68
Petro de Luanda
1.75

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
Petro de Luanda
0.61

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
64%
Sagrada Esperança or Petro de Luanda
72%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
64%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
15%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
68%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
32%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
11%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
68%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
32%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
50%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.53 · 106 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.68 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.15

Petro de Luanda attack 1.75 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
36%
level
28%
Petro de Luanda scores more
36%

Sagrada Esperança at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sagrada Esperança vs Petro de Luanda

Sagrada Esperança and Petro de Luanda drew 0-0 in Girabola on February 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.