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Sagrada Esperança vs Desportivo Huíla — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
5/19/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 27Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sagrada Esperança56%
×Draw27%
Desportivo Huíla17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.44
Desportivo Huíla
0.65

Sagrada Esperança creates 122% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.68
Desportivo Huíla
0.76

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
Desportivo Huíla
1.21

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Desportivo Huíla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
83%
Sagrada Esperança or Desportivo Huíla
73%
Draw or Desportivo Huíla
44%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
29%
Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
76%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
42%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
18%
Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
48%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
14%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
77%
Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.53 · 106 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.68 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
56%
level
27%
Desportivo Huíla scores more
17%

Sagrada Esperança at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sagrada Esperança 3–0 Desportivo Huíla

Sagrada Esperança beat Desportivo Huíla 3-0 in Girabola on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Quintalão in Dundo.