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Sagrada Esperança vs Cuando Cubango — Girabola 2019

Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
CANC
14:00
Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
5/2/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Sagrada Esperança60%
×Draw25%
Cuando Cubango16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagrada Esperança
1.59
Cuando Cubango
0.67

Sagrada Esperança creates 137% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 50 away

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança
1.69
Cuando Cubango
0.80

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança
0.53
Cuando Cubango
1.50

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par
Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

Cuando Cubango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw
84%
Sagrada Esperança or Cuando Cubango
75%
Draw or Cuando Cubango
40%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
32%
Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
80%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
47%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
21%
Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
49%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
15%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
79%
Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.53 · 103 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.69 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more
60%
level
25%
Cuando Cubango scores more
16%

Sagrada Esperança at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sagrada Esperança host Cuando Cubango

May 2, 2020: Sagrada Esperança take on Cuando Cubango in Girabola. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.