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Cuando Cubango vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2019

Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
FT
0 – 0
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
6/9/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 19Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cuando Cubango35%
×Draw34%
Sagrada Esperança32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuando Cubango
0.90
Sagrada Esperança
0.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 104 away

creates per match

Cuando Cubango
0.82
Sagrada Esperança
0.92

allows per match

Cuando Cubango
0.76
Sagrada Esperança
0.97

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw
68%
Cuando Cubango or Sagrada Esperança
66%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
65%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
12%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
59%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
23%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
6%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
57%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
21%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
52%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.97 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.92 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more
35%
level
34%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
32%

Cuando Cubango at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cuando Cubango 0 – 0 Sagrada Esperança

Cuando Cubango and Sagrada Esperança drew 0-0 in Girabola on June 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos in Kuito.