Sagrada Esperança 1–0 CD Lunda-Sul: Result & Stats

Sagrada Esperança

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CD Lunda-Sul

3/8/2025

Girabola · Round 20Estádio Quintalão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sagrada Esperança54%

×Draw28%

CD Lunda-Sul18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sagrada EsperançaExpected goals in this matchCD Lunda-Sul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.68

Sagrada Esperança

1.40

CD Lunda-Sul

0.68

Sagrada Esperança creates 106% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 75 away

1.68

creates per match

0.83

0.53

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sagrada Esperança

1.68

CD Lunda-Sul

0.83

allows per match

Sagrada Esperança

0.53

CD Lunda-Sul

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagrada Esperança ↓

CD Lunda-Sul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sagrada Esperança or draw

82%

Sagrada Esperança or CD Lunda-Sul

72%

Draw or CD Lunda-Sul

46%

Winning margin

Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+

27%

CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals

75%

Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals

41%

Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals

17%

CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals

49%

CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals

15%

CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)

75%

CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagrada Esperança at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.53 · 106 matches

CD Lunda-Sul away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagrada Esperança attack 1.68 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.83 + Sagrada Esperança defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sagrada Esperança scores more

54%

level

28%

CD Lunda-Sul scores more

18%

Sagrada Esperança at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff