Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sagan Tosu vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
11/3/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 35Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sagan Tosu31%
×Draw28%
Machida Zelvia41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagan Tosu
1.09
Machida Zelvia
1.29

Machida Zelvia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sagan Tosu
1.26
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

Sagan Tosu
1.19
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw
59%
Sagan Tosu or Machida Zelvia
72%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
69%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
12%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
66%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
30%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
10%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
72%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
37%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
43%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more
31%
level
28%
Machida Zelvia scores more
41%

Machida Zelvia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sagan Tosu vs Machida Zelvia

Sagan Tosu beat Machida Zelvia 2-1 in J1 League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium in Tosu.