Sagan Tosu 0–1 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats

Sagan Tosu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kyoto Sanga

10/1/2022

J1 League · Round 31Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Sagan Tosu39%

×Draw27%

Kyoto Sanga34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sagan TosuExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.17

Sagan Tosu

1.29

Kyoto Sanga

1.17

Sagan Tosu creates 10% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 80 away

1.26

creates per match

1.16

1.19

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sagan Tosu

1.26

Kyoto Sanga

1.16

allows per match

Sagan Tosu

1.19

Kyoto Sanga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw

66%

Sagan Tosu or Kyoto Sanga

73%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

61%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+

18%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals

72%

Sagan Tosu 2+ goals

37%

Sagan Tosu 3+ goals

14%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

69%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

33%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)

54%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more

39%

level

27%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

34%

Sagan Tosu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff