Sagan Tosu 5–2 Kawasaki Frontale: Result & Stats

Sagan Tosu

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Kawasaki Frontale

5/15/2024

J1 League · Round 14Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Sagan Tosu32%

×Draw26%

Kawasaki Frontale42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sagan TosuExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.44

Sagan Tosu

1.21

Kawasaki Frontale

1.44

Kawasaki Frontale creates 19% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 151 away

1.26

creates per match

1.70

1.19

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Sagan Tosu

1.26

Kawasaki Frontale

1.70

allows per match

Sagan Tosu

1.19

Kawasaki Frontale

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw

58%

Sagan Tosu or Kawasaki Frontale

74%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

68%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+

13%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals

70%

Sagan Tosu 2+ goals

34%

Sagan Tosu 3+ goals

12%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

76%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

42%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)

43%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.17 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.70 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more

32%

level

26%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

42%

Kawasaki Frontale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff