Sagan Tosu 0–1 Kashiwa Reysol: Result & Stats

Sagan Tosu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kashiwa Reysol

7/10/2022

J1 League · Round 21Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Sagan Tosu37%

×Draw27%

Kashiwa Reysol36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sagan TosuExpected goals in this matchKashiwa Reysol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.23

Sagan Tosu

1.27

Kashiwa Reysol

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 134 away

1.26

creates per match

1.28

1.19

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Sagan Tosu

1.26

Kashiwa Reysol

1.28

allows per match

Sagan Tosu

1.19

Kashiwa Reysol

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw

64%

Sagan Tosu or Kashiwa Reysol

73%

Draw or Kashiwa Reysol

63%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+

16%

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals

72%

Sagan Tosu 2+ goals

36%

Sagan Tosu 3+ goals

14%

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

71%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

35%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)

51%

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.28 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more

37%

level

27%

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

36%

Sagan Tosu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff