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Sagan Tosu vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League 2018

Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
8/26/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 25Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Sagan Tosu42%
×Draw27%
Gamba Osaka32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagan Tosu
1.37
Gamba Osaka
1.16

Sagan Tosu creates 18% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 147 away

creates per match

Sagan Tosu
1.26
Gamba Osaka
1.12

allows per match

Sagan Tosu
1.19
Gamba Osaka
1.48

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par
Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Gamba Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw
68%
Sagan Tosu or Gamba Osaka
73%
Draw or Gamba Osaka
58%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
19%
Gamba Osaka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
75%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
40%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
16%
Gamba Osaka 1+ goals
69%
Gamba Osaka 2+ goals
32%
Gamba Osaka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
57%
Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.48 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Gamba Osaka attack 1.12 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more
42%
level
27%
Gamba Osaka scores more
32%

Sagan Tosu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Sagan Tosu 1–1 Gamba Osaka

Sagan Tosu and Gamba Osaka drew 1-1 in J1 League on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium in Tosu.