Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sagamihara vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Sagamihara
Sagamihara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
5/9/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 13Sagamihara Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sagamihara29%
×Draw27%
Machida Zelvia44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagamihara
1.04
Machida Zelvia
1.34

Machida Zelvia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 127 away

creates per match

Sagamihara
0.95
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Sagamihara
1.38
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Sagamihara+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagamihara ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sagamihara or draw
56%
Sagamihara or Machida Zelvia
73%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
71%

Winning margin

Sagamihara wins by 2+
11%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sagamihara 1+ goals
65%
Sagamihara 2+ goals
28%
Sagamihara 3+ goals
9%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
74%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
39%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sagamihara (draw refunded)
40%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagamihara at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagamihara attack 0.95 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Sagamihara defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sagamihara scores more
29%
level
27%
Machida Zelvia scores more
44%

Machida Zelvia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sagamihara vs Machida Zelvia

Sagamihara and Machida Zelvia drew 1-1 in J2 League on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Sagamihara Gion Stadium in Sagamihara.