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Şagadam vs Ahal — Ýokary Liga 2020

Şagadam
Şagadam
FT
1 – 3
Ahal
Ahal
12/29/2023Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 27Türkmenbaşy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Şagadam32%
×Draw25%
Ahal43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şagadam
1.33
Ahal
1.58

Ahal creates 19% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

creates per match

Şagadam
1.54
Ahal
1.98

allows per match

Şagadam
1.18
Ahal
1.12

finishing

Şagadam+0.00on par
Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şagadam ↓

Ahal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Şagadam or draw
57%
Şagadam or Ahal
75%
Draw or Ahal
68%

Winning margin

Şagadam wins by 2+
14%
Ahal wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Şagadam 1+ goals
74%
Şagadam 2+ goals
38%
Şagadam 3+ goals
15%
Ahal 1+ goals
79%
Ahal 2+ goals
47%
Ahal 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Şagadam (draw refunded)
43%
Ahal (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şagadam at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Ahal away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.12 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şagadam attack 1.54 + Ahal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ahal attack 1.98 + Şagadam defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Şagadam scores more
32%
level
25%
Ahal scores more
43%

Ahal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Şagadam 1–3 Ahal

Ahal beat Şagadam 3-1 in Ýokary Liga on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Türkmenbaşy Stadium in Türkmenbaşy.